mscard report: P50

Baseline T1 to follow-up T2, interval 1.00 years. Lesion masks: supplied. mscard 0.1.0, lesiontrack 0.2.0, generated 2026-09-29 22:49 UTC.
This subject failed.
Traceback (most recent call last):
  File "/home/ubuntu/repos/mscard/mscard/cli.py", line 73, in cmd_run
    st = run_subject(name, scans, out, a.segmenter, params, do_measure, do_calibrate and not a.no_calibrate)
         ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
  File "/home/ubuntu/repos/mscard/mscard/cli.py", line 43, in run_subject
    syn, truth = make_synthetic(baseline, cal / "synthetic", params.synthetic, log)
                 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
  File "/home/ubuntu/repos/mscard/mscard/calibrate.py", line 106, in make_synthetic
    inject(tmp / "T1w_atrophied.nii.gz", tmp / "FLAIR_atrophied.nii.gz", tmp / "T1w_injected.nii.gz",
  File "/home/ubuntu/.venvs/mscard/lib/python3.12/site-packages/bidsgate/inject_lesions.py", line 233, in inject
    brain, wm = brain_and_wm(t1, zooms, fl, mask, affine=t1_img.affine)
                ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
  File "/home/ubuntu/.venvs/mscard/lib/python3.12/site-packages/bidsgate/inject_lesions.py", line 136, in brain_and_wm
    raise ValueError("white-matter estimate under 20 ml; is this a whole-head T1w?")
ValueError: white-matter estimate under 20 ml; is this a whole-head T1w?
Research software, not a medical device. Nothing on this page is a diagnosis. Every number below is produced by an open pipeline and, where a coloured badge is shown, the same pipeline was run on this subject's own baseline scan with known changes injected, and the badge says how well it recovered them. A green badge means the number can be read at face value on this scan; amber, read it together with the calibration table; red, the pipeline could not recover that kind of change here and the number should not be used.

Findings

8
new lesions (+1 adjacent fragments)
masks supplied: detection is the annotator's, not graded
14
enlarging lesions
calibration: 0 of 43 baseline lesions falsely called changed
10
shrinking lesions
calibration: 0 of 43 baseline lesions falsely called changed
13
resolved lesions
calibration: 0 of 43 baseline lesions falsely called resolved
298.5 %/yr
lesion volume change (9.14 to 36.44 ml)
calibration: 0 of 43 baseline lesions falsely called changed
36
slowly expanding lesion candidates
calibration: 52 candidates with no true expansion
-0.37 %/yr
brain volume change (deformation field)
calibration: -2.0 % injected, -2.9 % measured; rim-dominated: 0.42 %/yr with the mask eroded 6 mm
0.19 %/yr
brain volume change (mask ratio)
not graded

Brain volume change is the mean Jacobian determinant over the baseline brain mask. Its boundary check repeats the mean with the mask eroded 6 mm: -0.37 % full against 0.42 % eroded over the interval (disagreement 0.79 points per year: green ≤ 0.5, amber ≤ 1.5, red beyond). A change confined to the outer rim is rim-dominated: a mask difference between the two visits, or cortical change the eroded mask leaves out; the calibration cannot separate the two because a synthetic follow-up is stripped identically.

Baseline: 47 lesions, 9.14 ml. Classes follow Vanden Bulcke et al. 2025 bands: enlarging or shrinking beyond ±9 %/yr, stable within ±4 %/yr, trend between (0 trend up, 1 trend down, 4 stable). SEL candidates are the Elliott et al. 2019 Jacobian rule; a definite SEL is a cohort-relative ranking and needs a cohort.

How this report was graded

The baseline scan of this subject was turned into a synthetic follow-up one modelled year later: the whole brain contracted by -2.0 %, 12 new lesions (29 to 1519 mm³) placed at least 6 mm from every existing lesion, a rigid repositioning (-0.50, 0.86, 0.99 degrees; 0.43, 0.45, 0.92 voxels), gains 1.08, 0.97 and 2 % noise. Every baseline lesion moves with the field and nothing else; its truth volume in the synthetic mask is recorded per lesion, so each enlarging, shrinking or resolved call is judged against that lesion's own truth. The same pipeline then measured baseline against this synthetic scan.

Report lineTruthPipeline reportedReading
New lesions12 injected12 reported (12 new, 0 adjacent fragment); 0 false new, 4 false fragments; largest missed –not graded (sensitivity 1.00)
False new lesions00not graded
Enlarging or shrinking calls on baseline lesions25 of 43 truly beyond ±9 %/yr0 false (0.0 %), 0 missed; class agreement 1.00read at face value
Resolved calls on baseline lesions0 of 430read at face value
SEL candidates on baseline lesions052 (1.11 per baseline lesion)not trustworthy here
Brain volume change-2.00 %-2.93 % from the deformation field (recovery 1.46); -2.62 % from the mask ratio (recovery 1.31)read with the calibration

Injected lesions reported by size: <50 mm³: 3 of 3; 50-150 mm³: 3 of 3; 150-400 mm³: 2 of 2; >=400 mm³: 4 of 4.

Bands (mscard's own, stated so you can disagree): new-lesion sensitivity green ≥ 0.9, false new ≤ 1, brain-volume recovery [0.8, 1.2], false change rate ≤ 0.05, false resolved ≤ 0.0, SEL candidates per lesion ≤ 0.2; amber up to the second value of each.

Images

Real pair, baseline T1 to T2: baseline lesions (cyan), new voxels on the warped follow-up (yellow), Jacobian expansion inside lesions with SEL candidate outlines (lime).

overview_T2.png

Calibration pair, baseline to synthetic follow-up, same rendering.

overview_SYN.png

Lesions

GroupClassBaseline mm³Follow-up mm³%/yrVoxel centre (halfway grid)
4enlarging1496255621608.763, 120, 99
21enlarging3586434621.2106, 149, 80
7enlarging8451893124.060, 66, 82
25enlarging53592372.5116, 58, 79
43new0416–47, 137, 46
19enlarging84302259.576, 152, 69
27enlarging15128488.1115, 123, 90
51new0270–132, 44, 55
29shrinking300247-17.7117, 155, 86
33enlarging14423462.5125, 88, 90
49new0206–115, 111, 65
36enlarging12318147.2127, 97, 73
39shrinking158143-9.5134, 115, 92
14trend_down138127-8.068, 80, 99
17enlarging1091810.070, 91, 93
38enlarging1276533.3129, 104, 57
37enlarging556314.5130, 87, 75
8enlarging1358346.256, 100, 83
5shrinking7657-25.056, 103, 72
13shrinking6454-15.665, 143, 93
18shrinking5950-15.370, 154, 83
34shrinking7049-30.0124, 133, 104
24enlarging1644175.0109, 151, 92
2shrinking5739-31.648, 110, 92
30enlarging203995.0116, 159, 76
16shrinking4434-22.766, 106, 109
48adjacent_fragment032–110, 82, 104
41shrinking7525-66.7134, 99, 54
50new025–122, 68, 75
15shrinking3424-29.465, 138, 83
47new023–72, 80, 88
44new022–54, 90, 67
45new014–59, 102, 80
46new07–69, 86, 82
6resolved470-100.057, 56, 74
42resolved700-100.0134, 146, 44
20resolved410-100.097, 126, 108
40resolved10-100.0130, 115, 88
12resolved80-100.064, 95, 118
22resolved50-100.0105, 154, 92

11 stable lesions not listed; the full table is lesion_tracking.tsv.

Method